President Emmanuel Macron’s decision three weeks ago to call early elections has upended any semblance of political stability in France and opened the door to the possibility of the first far-right government in the modern republic.
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(Bloomberg) — President Emmanuel Macron’s decision three weeks ago to call early elections upended any semblance of political stability in France and opened the door to the possibility of the modern republic’s first far-right government.
Not only did his call to dissolve the National Assembly shock public opinion and markets — sending some risk indicators back to levels not seen since the eurozone crisis — but it also took Macron’s cabinet by surprise.
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The question remained unanswered: why did Macron put himself in this position if it was not necessary?
Macron made the decision on the night of June 9, after Marine Le Pen’s National Rally obtained twice as many votes as his centrist coalition in the European elections. Macron explained that he could not ignore the results while warning that « the rise of nationalists and demagogues » threatened France and Europe.
Basically, Macron is forcing voters to decide whether they prefer his pro-business, pro-European, pro-Ukraine vision for France or Le Pen’s agenda of slashing immigration, moving away from the rules of the European Union and to reverse some of Macron’s policies. pension reforms.
This could put the National Rally in a position where it would have to govern for the first time, creating a tangible record ahead of the 2027 presidential election, when Macron will be unable to run due to term limits.
Sunday’s vote will be the first round, with a runoff on July 7.
Here are the main topics to watch:
Winners and losers
On Friday, the last day that polling institutes are allowed to publish projections before the vote, the National Rally and its allies had a strong lead, on track to obtain 36.2% of the vote, according to the poll of polls of Bloomberg.
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A left-wing alliance — including the Socialists, Communists, Greens and the far-left La France Insoumise party — was on track to win 28.3%, while Macron’s centrist group was projected to win 20.4%.
Seat projections
The vote share in the first round does not tell the whole story: the decisive factor that will shape the next government will be the distribution of seats within the 577 members of the National Assembly after the second round.
Although the two-round vote makes seat forecasts tricky, the National Rally and its allies are expected to become the largest group in the lower house of parliament with between 238 and 281 members, according to the latest Bloomberg poll before Friday night’s blackout.
Once the first-round results are known on Sunday, pollsters will have much more data to refine their projections. That information will be crucial for parties trying to map out their campaign strategies and for investors trying to gauge what kind of instability lies ahead.
To prove
According to polls, the number of people expected to turn out to vote is expected to be significantly higher than in previous legislative elections. This is an important point in the French system, because it increases the chances that more than two candidates will qualify for the second round, making the three-way or even occasionally four-way races, known as triangular and quadrangular, less predictable.
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In 2022, there were only eight triangulars. This time, that number could reach between 160 and 200, according to a survey of 2,005 adults conducted by Odoxa on June 26 and 27.
The Interior Ministry will release provisional turnout figures at noon and 5 p.m.
Cohabitation or minority government
Any group that manages to secure an absolute majority of 289 seats or more will control the lower house of parliament. It will be able to pass laws easily and a government supported by this group will be safe from the threat of a motion of censure.
If the party which obtains the majority comes from a party other than that of the president, which has happened three times since the establishment of the current form of the French Republic in 1958, we end up with a type of sharing of the power called cohabitation. The president generally chooses as prime minister the leader of the party that obtained the majority. But a combination involving the National Rally would be the first time a party that has never governed before would be involved.
If a group wins the most seats but does not obtain an absolute majority, it could form a minority government, as is currently the case with Macron. But this also depends on the president, who alone has the power to appoint a prime minister.
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A hung parliament would make legislation difficult because the government would need to find extra votes outside its party for each bill. If the government used a constitutional provision allowing it to bypass a vote, it would be exposed to a vote of no confidence and could be brought down if rival parties came together.
The president of the National Rally, Jordan Bardella, said he would refuse the post if his party and its allies did not obtain an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
Markets
Macron’s decision to call an election sparked market turmoil in France, leading to a stock selloff that initially wiped nearly $200 billion off stock values.
The yield on 10-year government bonds hit its highest level since November on Friday, taking the extra yield investors are demanding for French debt over similar German government bonds to 86 basis points, the highest level since 2012. The benchmark CAC 40 stock index fell to its lowest level since January.
Strategies
The three parties leading the elections propose radically different paths for France.
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Macron’s party advocates continuity, with more tax cuts and pro-business reforms, as well as a commitment to cut spending. Responding to voter concerns, his group has added promises to boost low-income earners by adjusting taxes, as well as measures to help home buyers.
The National Rally promised to reduce immigration, strengthen security policy in France by increasing the number of places in prison and imposing minimum sentences, and reduce VAT on energy and fuel. After selling off assets in France, the party delayed some of its most costly measures, perhaps indefinitely pending a review of public finances.
The New Popular Front has the most radical economic program. In the short term, it plans to freeze prices of basic consumer goods, abolish Macron’s pension reform, and increase the minimum wage by 14% and public sector wages by 10%. The additional annual spending, which is expected to reach €150 billion by 2027, would be financed entirely by taxing corporations, finance and the wealthy.
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