Dutch far-right leader Wilders wins shock election victory

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(Bloomberg) — Far-right lawmaker Geert Wilders won the Dutch election and said he plans to lead the country’s next government, a shock result that will resonate across Europe.

Frontrunner Dilan Yesilgoz-Zegerius conceded defeat after a late surge in the final days of the campaign that catapulted Wilders’ anti-EU party past its main rivals. Wilders’ Freedom Party will win 35 seats, according to an initial count, more than double its representation in the previous parliament and giving it 10 more than its nearest rival.

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Only once in recent Dutch history has the leader of the largest party not become prime minister.

Wilders’ victory poses a challenge to the European Union project in one of the bloc’s six founding members, as the world prepares for the potential return of Donald Trump after next year’s U.S. election. Wilders promised voters a binding referendum on leaving the EU and denounced a range of the bloc’s policies on issues including climate change and immigration.

“The hope of the Dutch people is to get their country back,” Wilders said after an exit poll published by public broadcaster NOS.

His chances of leading the next government will depend on his ability to forge alliances with more central rivals. In his post-election speech, Wilders called for a coalition that would include the liberal VVD party, led until recently by outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who has indicated he might be willing to govern alongside him. “I am ready to compromise in negotiations with other parties,” he said.

Rising refugee numbers since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as skyrocketing food and energy prices, have fueled support for far-right groups across the European continent. The German Alternative for Germany now has more support than any party in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition, while Giorgia Meloni came from nowhere to take power last year in Italy.

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The Dutch election campaign has highlighted how immigration has polarized voter opinion and generated support for Wilders, for whom the issue has been a top concern for decades. This 60-year-old man is known for his anti-Islamic views and has lived under police protection since 2004 due to death threats.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who himself has always been at odds with Brussels, was quick to congratulate him on his victory.

Wilders and his team hugged and applauded when the result was announced and sang along to Rocky’s theme song, Eye of the Tiger. Journalists who watched his campaign team party in a crowded bar in Scheveningen, near The Hague, did so behind security glass.

“It is customary for the largest and most winning party to take the lead in the formation process,” said Stefan Couperus, associate professor of political science at the University of Groningen. “He could become the head of the new government.”

Wilders benefited from a strong performance in the final election debates of the campaign – and from the refusal of Rutte’s successor as party leader, Yesilgoz-Zegerius, to rule out collaboration with him. The VVD leader signaled before the election that she could form a coalition with Wilders, although after exit poll results fell, she questioned her rival’s ability to secure the votes that he needs to govern.

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“I don’t think this is happening because Mr Wilders cannot form a majority,” she said. “But the ball is now in Geert Wilders’ court.”

A telling precedent for Wilders came in Spain this month, where socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez won a surprise third term despite losing to his center-right rival in July elections. Sanchez marshaled support from seven different parties to overturn the electoral calculus in his favor after the two right-wing parties fell short of a majority.

If Wilders ends up leading the next Dutch government, it would elevate a Eurosceptic to the rank of one of the union’s loyal members. He called on the Netherlands to withdraw from its international climate obligations and demanded an end to aid to Ukraine.

Under Rutte, the Netherlands pledged to send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine next year and led European efforts to train Ukrainian pilots.

Despite election promises to ban the Koran and close mosques, « Geert Wilders delivered a more moderate message than in previous years, » Couperus said. “It seems to have worked electorally.”

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Wilders has been an MP for 25 years, but only took part in government once, between 2010 and 2012, when he struck a deal to support Rutte’s first minority coalition from outside. Rutte later ruled out working with him, after Wilders made insulting comments towards people of Moroccan origin for which he was censured by the courts.

It is likely that the outgoing interim government led by Rutte could preside for some time, especially if Wilders struggles to make progress in the coalition-building process. In the last election, four parties were needed to achieve a majority government and negotiations lasted a record nine months.

“The PVV cannot be ignored and wants to work with other parties, which means that we and they must overcome its shadow,” Wilders said.

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